PRICE215.14
DAY-0.79%
1M~+8%
YTD+15.50%
MCAP$5.211T (Yahoo); $5.212T (CMC)
THESISStill the scarce AI compute platform: Q1 already $81.6B, Street is at ~$92B for the print in five days, and China is carried at zero in the $91B guide.
RISKWednesday 26 Aug Q2 print / Q3 guide is the whole tape; a miss versus the $91.9–92.1B whisper, or any sign hyperscaler capex is digesting, reprices the $5.2T.
JPMOverweight / $280 (Harlan Sur; raised from $265 after Q1, ~21 May 2026). No later verified JPM mark found.
GSBuy / $285 (James Schneider; reiterated 1 Jun 2026 after GTC Taipei). No later verified GS mark found.
LASTQ1 FY27 (ended 26 Apr 2026), reported 20 May 2026: rev $81.6B vs ~$78.8–78.9B LSEG/FactSet, adj EPS $1.87 vs $1.76–1.77, Data Center $75.2B (+92%…
NEXT26 Aug 2026 (confirmed; after close)
PRICE308.54
DAY-0.89%
1M-5.86%
YTD+13.80%
MCAP$4.503T (Yahoo/CMC)
THESISiPhone 17 cycle and Services still print records, but the stock already paid for that into $5T and then ate a soft 9–11% Q4 guide plus a 1 Sep CEO handoff.
RISKMemory/supply constraints and a Ternus day-one product/AI miss into the Oct print; 35x trailing leaves little room if September growth slips again.
JPMOverweight / $340 (31 Jul 2026; cut from $345). Demand cycle 'more momentum than investors anticipated'; supply/memory offset.
GSBuy / $360 (31 Jul 2026; cut from $370 after a pre-print lift from $340).
LASTFY Q3 (ended 27 Jun 2026), reported 30 Jul 2026: rev $109.4B vs $108.65B LSEG (CNBC), GAAP EPS $2.02 (incl. $0.11 tariff rebate);
NEXT29 Oct 2026 (est.; Yahoo/Public.com). One calendar (FXEmpire) says 28 Oct — treat as late-Oct, not confirmed by Apple IR.
VS STREETJPM Overweight · GS Buy
PRICE342.35
DAY+1.23%
1M~-5%
YTD+9.24%
MCAP$4.187T (Yahoo/CMC)
THESISCloud just ran 82% with 35.6% op. margin and a $514B backlog; 17x trailing is the cheapest quality compounder in the top 10 after a capex/talent scare.
RISKFCF stays suppressed if 2026 capex sticks at $195–205B and 2027 'increases significantly', while Search AI disruption or more Gemini talent leakage hits the multiple.
JPMOverweight / $420 (23 Jul 2026; lowered from $460). Yahoo quote page confirms same mark.
GSBuy / $435 (Eric Sheridan, 23 Jul 2026; $440 → $435). Some secondary write-ups say 'Strong Buy' — GS scale is Buy; we use Buy / $435.
LASTQ2 2026, reported 22 Jul 2026: rev $119.8B vs $116.93B LSEG; adj EPS $2.85 vs $2.89 LSEG (miss); GAAP EPS $9.11 incl. ~$99B equity-securities gain.
NEXT28 Oct 2026 (Yahoo)
PRICE482.70
DAY+0.32%
1M+21.36%
YTD+0.44%
MCAP$3.584T (Yahoo); $3.583T (CMC)
THESISAzure re-accelerated to 43% and Copilot is 30M paid seats, but the stock already ripped ~21% in a month off the print and sits only ~15% below a $570 street average.
RISKCloud gross margin (65% last qtr) and Copilot seat conversion stall while capex stays elevated; a 45% Azure guide that doesn't show up in FCF keeps the multiple capped.
JPMOverweight / $625 December 2027 target (Samik Chatterjee, 13 Aug 2026; raised from $550). This is a 2027 horizon, not a standard 12-month PT.
GSBuy / $640 and added to U.S. Conviction List (3 Aug 2026; PT raised from $610).
LASTFY Q4 (ended 30 Jun 2026), reported 29 Jul 2026: rev $90.01B vs $87.62B LSEG; adj EPS $4.74 vs $4.24. Azure +43% (cc +43%) vs ~40% expected.
NEXT28 Oct 2026 (est.; Yahoo)
VS STREETJPM Overweight · GS Buy
PRICE259.17
DAY-0.36%
1M~-4.2%
YTD+12.28%
MCAP$2.795T (Yahoo/CMC)
THESISAWS just printed its fastest growth since 2021 (37% / $42.2B) and AI+chips are already >$25B run-rate each; 21x trailing is not a rich multiple for that inflection.
RISK$220B 2026 capex plus a light Q3 sales guide ($197–202B vs $204B Street) if retail North America margins don't hold while AWS soaks capital.
JPMOverweight / $365 (Doug Anmuth; raised from $330 after Q2, late Jul / ~1 Aug 2026). Kept on Best Idea list per secondary notes.
GSBuy / $375 (Eric Sheridan, 10 Aug 2026; $335 → $375). Confirmed on StockAnalysis analyst table.
LASTQ2 2026, reported 30 Jul 2026: rev $200.61B vs $196.47B LSEG; adj EPS $1.97 vs $1.82. GAAP EPS $5.75 incl. $53.4B Anthropic-related gain.
NEXT29 Oct 2026 (est.; Yahoo)
PRICE419.39
DAY+0.81%
1M+4.25%
YTD+40.71%
MCAP$2.175T (Yahoo/CMC ADR mcap)
THESISThe only foundry that can actually ship the AI stack: Q2 $40.2B at 67.7% GM, FY26 growth raised to 'slightly above 40%', 2nm ramping now.
RISKSingle-island geopolitical risk plus customer concentration (NVDA/AAPL/AVGO); a US-China or Taiwan shock, or a 2nm yield slip, is the only thing that breaks this in 2–3 quarters.
JPMOverweight / NT$2,400 end-2026 target (raised around Q1 2026, Futunn/Zhitong). Earlier 7 Jan 2026 mark was OW / NT$2,100. No verified post-16 Jul 2026 JPM note found.
GSConviction Buy / NT$2,330 (4 Jan 2026; from NT$1,720). No verified post-16 Jul 2026 GS mark found — treat as stale vs 2,410 TWD last.
LASTQ2 2026, reported 16 Jul 2026: rev NT$1,270.38B / $40.20B (high end of $39.0–40.2B guide) vs ~$39.94B Street;
NEXT15 Oct 2026 (Yahoo)
PRICE136.19
DAY+1.63%
1M+10.24%
YTDListed 12 Jun 2026. Yahoo chart YTD/list…
MCAP$1.795T (Yahoo/CMC)
THESIS$1.8T on $23B TTM sales, still losing money, $18B of quarterly capex and a lockup that just dumped ~912M shares — this is a story stock, not a 12-month equity.
RISKIf Starlink cash and the AI/Grok/Colossus narrative re-rate the multiple before the next unlock, a Sell is early; the bull case is $100B ARR pulled into 2027.
JPMOverweight / $240 (Doug Anmuth, ~6–7 Aug 2026; raised from $225 after Q2).
GSBuy / $220 (Eric Sheridan; raised from $205 after Q2, ~early Aug 2026).
LASTQ2 2026, first print as a public co., 4 Aug 2026: rev $7.81B vs $6.93B LSEG (+92% y/y); LPS -$0.09 vs -$0.26 LSEG; net loss $541M.
NEXT3 Nov 2026 (est.; Yahoo)
VS STREETJPM Overweight · GS Buy
PRICE367.03
DAY+0.82%
1M-5.04%
YTD+6.44%
MCAP$1.746T (Yahoo/CMC)
THESISCustom AI (Google TPU and the Anthropic/OpenAI book) is real and FY26 AI semis are guided ~$56B, but they already refused to raise the FY27 >$100B AI number and the stock is a financing story into 2 Sep.
RISKCustomer concentration plus a $70–100B SPV debt package (Bloomberg/CNBC, 20–21 Aug) that puts leverage and Anthropic counterparty risk on the equity if the ASIC book slips.
JPMOverweight / $580 (Harlan Sur; raised from $500 after Q2, Jun 2026; reiterated mid-Jun). No verified Aug update found.
GSBuy / $525 (18 Aug 2026 note; FY27 AI rev model $133B, 12% above consensus).
LASTFY Q2 (ended 3 May 2026), reported 3 Jun 2026: rev $22.19B vs $22.27B LSEG (slight miss); adj EPS $2.44 vs $2.40 LSEG. AI semis $10.8B (+143%).
NEXT2 Sep 2026 (Yahoo / company calendar)
VS STREETJPM Overweight · GS Buy
PRICE26.40
DAY-0.90%
1M-1.49%
YTD+15.07%
MCAP$1.700T (CMC); 6.386T SAR (Yahoo)
THESISHormuz reroute plus $108/bbl realized crude just paid a $33.4B quarter and a ~5% dividend, but volumes are shut-in and the equity is a war-premium, not a growth compounder.
RISKA ceasefire / Hormuz reopening (Nasser: up to 18 months to refill inventories even then) collapses the $108 crude print faster than the 5% yield can compensate.
JPMBuy / SAR 30 (latest verified around Q1 2026, Economy Middle East citing the post-Q1 note). No verified post-4 Aug 2026 JPM mark found.
GSBuy / SAR 32 (12 May 2026; raised from SAR 29). No verified post-4 Aug 2026 GS mark found.
LASTQ2 2026, reported 4 Aug 2026: adj net income SAR 125.2B / $33.4B vs ~$31.59B consensus (+33% y/y). Revenue/other income $139.1B vs $108.6B y/y.
NEXT3 Nov 2026 (Yahoo)
VS STREETJPM Buy · GS Buy
PRICE365.18
DAY+5.81%
1M-3.63%
YTD-18.80%
MCAP$1.442T (Yahoo/CMC)
THESISThe auto business is growing units and shrinking profit (adj $0.33 vs $0.51) while the $1.44T multiple is robotaxi/Optimus — 2.4M paid robotaxi miles is not a $1.4T business yet.
RISKNevada 5,000-robotaxi permit plus Cybercab/Semi ramps turn the autonomy story into revenue before the multiple compresses; we are short the calendar, not the technology.
JPMNeutral / $445 (Rajat Gupta; upgraded from UW in Jun 2026 at $475, later $445. MarketScreener 19 Aug 2026: Neutral, PT remains $445).
GSNeutral / $375 (latest verified; Q2-period note lifting delivery forecast, still Neutral). No later verified GS mark found.
LASTQ2 2026, reported 22 Jul 2026: rev $28.24B vs $25.71B CNBC / $26.42B FactSet; adj EPS $0.33 vs $0.51 CNBC / $0.53 FactSet. GAAP NI $1.11B / $0.32.
NEXT21 Oct 2026 (Yahoo)
VS STREETJPM Neutral · GS Neutral